As the project progressed, I found myself much more intrigued by what both sides were concluding might occur, rather than what had occurred. To that point, Outerslant made a pivot to predicting news futures and—more or less—is now a hobby I update whenever I get the chance.
You can visit the methodology page to learn more about the forecasting guidelines used.
3% chance of gun control bill being passed.
Two separate bills after Sandy Hook failed to advance passed the senate. One called for assault weapon ban and another for universal background checks, both failed.
With a Republican majority in Congress and Trump in the White House, the likeliest event is to appeal to their base. It’s a very slim chance any gun control bill will advance.
Though seen as a tragedy, Americans have grown particularly unfazed by these events as they have become commonplace. You may think this would ignite a debate on gun control, but it seems to be having the opposite effect.
18% chance of war with North Korea
UPDATED OCT 2, 2017
The threat of a nuclear crisis has been what has kept the modern world relatively peaceful. This instance is no different. According to Retired Navy Adm. James Stavridis, former NATO military chief, he views Kim Jong-un as a reasonable leader that is using nukes as leverage rather than a means to reunify the Korean peninsula. Holding nukes means a lower threat of U.S. or allies attacking, thus Kim keeping his regime in place.
71% chance of DACA becoming law
UPDATED OCT 3, 2017
“If you work hard, follow the law and pay your taxes, you can stay here permanently,” Sen. Tillis promised Dreamers.
This bill, which may not be the final form of the DACA bill to pass, is the beginning of a conversation within Congress and a good sign that things will move along for Dreamers.
There is evidence that DACA is working, and this is one of the talking points of the new bill. Members of DACA are law-abiding, tax paying citizens and amongst the 700,000+ most are grateful for the opportunity presented by Obama.
One major factor is the big question of “what do we do with almost 1 million people?” It’s hard to just toss such a large group of people aside without avoiding a human rights crisis. Reagan knew this, and I believe Reagan passing an amnesty law helps the argument for Trump Republicans to stand behind this, especially since Dreamers aren’t viewed negatively by most Americans.
There’s a slim chance Trump may flip-flop on the issue, which is why I’m not very confident and am riding the line between Maybe and No with a 62% chance.